Thank you for the kind words, and in general I totally agree with what you're saying: the breeder (if he is successful) knows his own dogs better than anyone. I have always listened to the breeders who came before me to find out which breeding combinations tend to do what that they (as breeders) had a hand in creating. The breeder will always have the greatest overall perspective. By contrast, most people who have dogs from a breeder only know their own dogs; they do not have a full perspective on the breeder's line in general, nor in the propensities of what to expect from each of the breeder's genetic combinations that they (as buyers) have not seen.
However, I would also like to make a comment on something you said for your consideration: like you, I always tended to pick Poncho dogs that looked like Poncho (or Missy), especially if they behaved that way (movement, look in the eyes, etc.). One thing to keep in mind, though, is sometimes a breeding combination might produce a better dog than what you had before ... who also looks different
An example would be Silverback. His daddy Ouch was a really good, solid, game oldschool bulldog. Missy was an absolutely fantastic bitch, even better than Ouch in some respects (mouth), but neither Missy nor Ouch was a true finisher. Silverback came from both of these dogs, was more athletic than either one, was colored differently, and (most importantly) while he did not have the devastating mouth of his mother, he came with true finish that neither of his parents had.
Silverback also carried with him his own "persona." Personality-wise, he is neither like Ouch nor like Missy. Ouch and Missy were both happy-go-lucky doggies. Silverback has an "edge" to him. He is a friendly dog, but you can just tell there is an element of danger with him that is very real.
Therefore, while it is good to select your pups based on their conformity to your standard, it is also worthy to keep in mind that life may throw you a curveball (and a good one!) and present you with something "different" from what you're used to, that may well be a cut above
Jack