Puppy Signs!!...

[Officially Retired]

Personally I do not think a person can accurately predict what a dog will be when they are 6-7-8 weeks old. One can put all the odds in his favor and can end up with an exceptional litter. Once can know all there is to know about the family from generations 1-6 or to 8 or to 10.

He can believe this particular puppy will do this or do that, and he can even say I told you what he would do some years later. But he didn't know.

I understand what you're saying: in the strictest, Cartesian, sense of the word "knowledge," no one can know anything.

If you want to operate under the same high standard, set by René Descartes, famous French philosopher, you could be deceived as to everything you think you know.
According to René Descartes, he might have not really existed as a "man" himself.
He could be a brain in a vat, and all of his senses that he thinks he has could be illusions.

The only thing René Descartes could absolutely, positively, know is that "there is thinking going on" ... and for there to be "thinking" going on, René Descartes allowed himself only one logical conclusion: I think therefore I am.

If you want to hold true knowledge to this high of a standard, you're right, none of us knows absolutely anything, except that there is thinking going on and that "we" are the one doing the thinking.

So within this context, I agree with you.

That admitted, I agree ... even the best breeder can't "know" how his pups are going to turn out; but can have a very educated guess

I have always questioned high percentages because of the variables involved. (Laboratory background) The breeder can be the absolute best. The family can be absolute best. And in turn the dogs can be the absolute best.

No breeder keeps everything.

The variable I always question is finding an extremely high percentage of people who will afford the breeder, the family and the dog the opportunity to shine through. If I go to a show, or a gathering, or in a forum or wherever, and 7 out of 10 people are basically morons the odds of those other three getting enough dogs to maintain a high percentage of a family is a stretch.

Actually, the exact opposite conclusion should be drawn: some bloodlines really aren't all that good. Certain dogmen develop a group of solid, but basically mediocre dogs, probably game (but not too bright and not too talented), but this group of dogs happens to be in the hands of a highly knowledgeable, very competitive conditioner. These dogs will win a lot of matches for this conditioner, but as soon as they get sold, the same group of dogs can't scrape 2 wins in a row together. Why? Because the typical, stupid dog men who get them aren't as good at conditioning, so these mediocre dogs quickly look substandard if compromised by bad keeps, etc. They only were made to look truly good because the quality of the dogs is actually so-so; it was the man's keep and conditioning which were truly outstanding.

By contrast, the breeder who is able to send his dogs anywhere, to all 4 corners of the earth, every continent, in various hands, with varying levels of competency ... so if that breeder is able to send his dogs, literally "everywhere," and when those dogs get off the plane they invariably kick ass, that is a quality bloodline my friend.

Jack